Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Doe, and I'm a software engineer based in Washington state. Ive been working in tech for years, often dealing with data analysis and systems that rely on accurate information to make decisions. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. Theyre valuable tools for me personally and for society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to adopt proportionate regulations rather than overly restrictive bans.
As someone who crunches data for a living, I cant overstate how useful prediction markets are for forecasting. Ive seen them consistently outperform polls and pundits on elections and other public events. Thats not just helpful for traders like me, its better information for everyone, from journalists to policymakers. Beyond forecasting, I use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, Ive traded contracts tied to economic indicators like CPI data because inflation directly impacts my budget for tech gear and living costs. This isnt gambling, its a practical way to manage uncertainty, much like any other investment.
I also believe regulated markets are the way to go. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If you ban or over-restrict these markets, youll push activity to less transparent venues where consumer protections are nonexistent. The US should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. Plus, the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Those can be adapted here without resorting to broad prohibitions.
On specific points in the ANPR, Id like to address Question 7 under Public Interest. Prediction markets balance innovation with consumer protection by providing unique price discovery and risk management tools. Theyre not gaming, as raised in Question 15 under Listed Activities. These contracts serve real economic purposes, like hedging and informed decision-making. And regarding Question 29 on Inside Information, I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting all participants, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
Im not blind to the risks. Manipulation and unfair practices are real concerns, but the answer isnt shutting down an entire market. Its about targeted rules that address specific issues while letting legitimate activity continue. Banning prediction markets would punish regular folks like me who use them responsibly and drive innovation offshore.
I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible, safe, and innovative. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
John Doe
