Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kolton Guilford, and I'm an everyday citizen from Oregon writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support the idea of having access to legal, regulated platforms for these kinds of trades. I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to gather public input before crafting formal rules, and I want to urge you to support proportionate regulation rather than overly restrictive bans.
To me, prediction markets aren't just a niche hobby. They provide forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand when checking platforms like Kalshi for insights on election outcomes or economic events. That kind of information is valuable, not just for traders but for anyone trying to make sense of the world. Plus, these markets let regular people like me hedge real risks. For example, I've used them to offset uncertainty around policies that could impact my taxes or cost of living. This isn't gambling; it's a practical tool, and classifying event contracts as "gaming" ignores their legitimate economic purpose.
I'm also worried about what happens if these markets get banned or over-restricted. Regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If you push this activity underground, it won't stop. It'll just move to places with no oversight, which helps no one. The US should be leading in financial innovation, not handing that role to other countries. And honestly, the CFTC already has solid tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading. Use those instead of broad bans that punish everyone for the actions of a few.
I noticed some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 15 on defining gaming versus legitimate markets. On those, I'd say innovation and access for regular folks should be prioritized, as long as there are clear rules to prevent abuse. Also, on Question 29 about informed trading, I believe traders with good information actually improve price discovery, which benefits everyone. Targeted regulation, not categorical restrictions, is the way to go.
I hope you'll consider my perspective as someone who values the freedom to participate in these markets. Please support a regulatory framework that allows prediction markets to thrive under fair, proportionate rules. Don't ban or overly limit them, as that would do more harm than good.
Sincerely,
Kolton Guilford
