Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Asher Frederick, and I'm a software engineer from Wisconsin. I'm writing to express my strong support for prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand how these markets provide unique value, and I believe the CFTC should regulate them proportionately rather than imposing overly restrictive rules or bans.
I got into prediction markets because, frankly, I was frustrated with how traditional stock trading often feels rigged. Insider trading happens all the time, and it seems like only people with deep pockets can really play the game, which often occurs with day trading or market manipulation. Prediction markets, on the other hand, level the playing field. They let regular folks like me participate without large transaction fees or needing a huge bankroll. I use Kalshi to trade on things like election outcomes and economic indicators, and the information I get from the prices is often more accurate than small sampled polls. This kind of forecasting isnt just useful for me; it helps everyone make better decisions, from regular citizens to policymakers.
I also value these markets for hedging personal financial risks. As a tech worker, policy changes or economic shifts can impact my job stability or contract work. Being able to hedge against those uncertainties through a platform gives me peace of mind. Beyond that, I think prediction markets are a net positive for society. They improve price discovery by aggregating information from many participants, and academic research backs this up. Informed trading isnt a problem; its what makes the prices more accurate and benefits everyone in the market.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and Im not dismissing them. This already occurs frequently with standard stock trading. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues, and they should use them instead of broad bans. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets wont stop people from trading; itll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all. Regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer. Im particularly drawn to Questions 7 and 8 in the ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection, and Question 29 on whether informed traders help price discovery. My view is clear: innovation and informed participation make these markets stronger, and targeted rules can address specific risks without ruining the whole concept.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while addressing legitimate concerns with focused solutions. Dont let over-regulation or categorical bans push this valuable tool out of reach for everyday Americans like me.
Sincerely,
Asher Frederick
