Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Andres Ornelas, and I'm a student from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole. I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to seek public input before crafting rules, and I hope my perspective as a student and active user can help shape a balanced approach.
As a student, I don't have a huge budget, but Ive found prediction markets to be a practical way to hedge personal financial risks. For example, Ive used Kalshi to trade on events like interest rate decisions that could impact my student loan costs or inflation data that affects my day-to-day expenses. Its not gambling to me; its a tool to manage uncertainty in my life. These markets also give me access to information and forecasts that I cant find anywhere else. Ive noticed their predictions often beat out polls or news pundits, which helps me make better decisions, even beyond trading.
I strongly believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-restrict or ban prediction markets here, we risk pushing this activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all. Id much rather trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi, under the CFTCs watch, than take my chances with some shady foreign site. Regulation keeps us safe, but it has to be smart and proportionate, not a blanket shutdown. Im worried that if we dont lead on this, other countries will, and well lose out on the benefits of these markets.
I also want to address some of the concerns raised in your ANPR, specifically around public interest and innovation, like in Questions 7 and 8. I understand theres a need to protect consumers from potential manipulation or misuse, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle fraud and insider trading in other markets. Those same tools can work here. Banning or overly restricting prediction markets doesnt solve the problem; it just punishes regular users like me who rely on them for legitimate purposes.
I urge the CFTC to support the growth of prediction markets with clear, fair regulations that address specific risks without stifling innovation. Lets keep these markets accessible to everyday people and ensure the US remains at the forefront of financial tools like these. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Andres Ornelas
