Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is William Hancock, and I'm an everyday citizen from Florida writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of regulating these markets in a fair and balanced way, rather than banning or overly restricting them.
As someone who participates in these markets, I can tell you they aren't just games or gambling. I put time into researching events, whether it's an upcoming election or an economic indicator, before I make a trade. To me, that's no different from studying a company's earnings before buying its stock. These event contracts have a real purpose, helping people like me hedge against uncertainties that affect our lives, like policy changes or inflation data that hit my wallet. Classifying them as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve legitimate economic needs. I urge the CFTC to recognize this distinction when addressing questions like 15 and 16 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
I'm also worried about what happens if these markets get pushed out of reach. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans prediction markets, regular folks like me won't just stop trading. We'll get driven to unregulated offshore platforms that don't have any oversight. I've seen some of these sites, and they don't offer the protections that a regulated market like Kalshi does. The CFTC's focus on consumer protection, as raised in questions 7 and 8, should prioritize keeping activity in regulated spaces where there are safeguards, not forcing it into riskier corners of the internet.
Another thing that matters to me is freedom. I value being able to participate in legal, regulated markets as an individual. Prediction markets give me a way to engage with real-world events and put my knowledge to use. I don't want to see the US fall behind other countries by stifling this kind of financial innovation. We should be leading the way, not handing the advantage to others. This ties into question 7 about balancing innovation with consumer protection, and I believe we can do both with smart rules.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and those need to be taken seriously. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle bad actors, and I think focusing on enforcement rather than broad restrictions is the better path. I hope you'll consider my perspective as a regular citizen who sees value in these markets. Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets that keeps them safe and accessible for people like me, without pushing activity offshore or shutting down innovation.
Thank you for considering my comments.
Sincerely,
William Hancock
