Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ethan Vogel, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Washington state writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm new to prediction markets, but I've quickly come to see their value, and I want to support a sensible approach to regulating them without shutting them down or over-restricting them.
I got into prediction markets recently, and as a beginner, I've been really impressed with how they're evolving. Platforms like Kalshi make it easy to jump in with clear information to base predictions on. I don't think much needs to change, honestly. Maybe adding more e-games beyond just CS2 would be nice, since that's an area a lot of people like me follow. But overall, the experience has been pretty close to perfect for someone new like me. What I love most is how these markets give regular folks access to information you can't find anywhere else. The prices reflect real insights about events, and that's helpful for making decisions, whether it's about politics, economics, or other stuff in the news. I think this kind of price discovery benefits everyone, not just traders.
One thing I'm firm on is that regulated markets like Kalshi are way safer than unregulated offshore platforms. If the CFTC cracks down too hard or bans certain event contracts, people aren't going to stop trading. They'll just go to sketchy, overseas sites with no oversight. That seems like a step backward for consumer protection. I'd rather see the CFTC focus on keeping these markets regulated here in the US, where there are rules and accountability. This ties into some of your questions, like in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), where you're asking about balancing innovation and protection. I think regulation, not restriction, is the way to go.
I also don't think event contracts should be labeled as gaming. They're not like slot machines or sports betting. Making a prediction takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. These markets have real economic purposes, like helping people understand risks and trends. That connects to your questions in Topic C (Questions 15-22) about defining gaming versus legitimate markets. I hope you'll see these contracts for what they are: useful tools, not gambling.
I'm not an expert, but I believe prediction markets can be a positive force if handled right. Please support proportionate regulation that keeps them accessible and safe, without banning broad categories or pushing activity offshore. Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Ethan Vogel
