Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Abhishek Dave, and I'm a software engineer based in Pennsylvania. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to support well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me, and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to regulate them proportionately without imposing overly restrictive bans.
As someone in tech, I rely on accurate data to make decisions, and prediction markets have consistently provided better forecasts than polls or pundits for events like elections or economic indicators. I've used these insights not just for trading, but to better understand trends that impact my work and personal finances. For example, trading on election outcomes has helped me anticipate potential policy shifts that could affect tech regulations or taxes, allowing me to plan ahead. This isn't gambling; it's a thoughtful process of research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" (as discussed in Questions 15-22) ignores their real economic purpose, like price discovery and hedging risks.
I also value the ability to hedge personal financial risks through these markets. Whether it's a Federal Reserve decision impacting interest rates or a CPI report affecting costs, prediction markets let me offset uncertainties that hit my budget. This hedging utility (relevant to Questions 7-14 on public interest) is a legitimate need for individuals and businesses alike, and shutting down access would leave us exposed.
I'm aware of concerns about manipulation or insider trading (Questions 29-32), but the CFTC already has strong tools to address these issues in other derivatives markets. Applying those existing safeguards makes more sense than broad bans. Informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting everyone by making markets more accurate. Plus, banning or over-restricting prediction markets won't stop bad actors; it will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier for consumers like me. I'd much rather trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, than be forced into less safe alternatives.
The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation (as touched on in Questions 7-14). We shouldn't cede this space to other countries by over-regulating. Academic research, which I follow closely as a data-driven person, also backs the value of prediction markets in aggregating information and improving public decision-making. I believe proportionate, targeted regulation is the way to go, addressing specific risks without categorical prohibitions.
I ask the CFTC to support regulated prediction markets and ensure ordinary citizens like me can continue to participate in these valuable tools. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Abhishek Dave
