Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Sebastian Gomez, and I'm an everyday citizen from Massachusetts writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for society when regulated properly. I'm asking you to support proportionate rules that allow these markets to operate while addressing specific risks, rather than imposing broad restrictions or bans.
I've always been interested in how we make decisions as a country, especially during elections or big public events. But it's hard to trust polls or pundits when they so often get things wrong. That's why I turned to prediction markets. The first time I checked one out, I was amazed at how the prices seemed to cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of what might actually happen. It's not perfect, but study after study shows these markets are often more accurate than traditional forecasts. That kind of information isn't just helpful to traders like me; it's useful for everyone, from journalists to regular people trying to understand the world. I think the CFTC should recognize this public benefit when crafting rules, especially as you consider questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation with consumer protection.
I also worry about what happens if these markets get over-regulated or shut down. Right now, platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which means there are rules and accountability. If you make it too hard for regulated markets to function, people will just turn to offshore platforms with no oversight at all. I've seen those sites out there, and they're a lot sketchier. I'd much rather have a system where legitimate, regulated markets can thrive and keep activity in a safer environment. This ties into your questions 33 and 34 about classification and regulatory costs. Please make sure the framework you create doesn't push people toward riskier options.
Of course, I get that there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading. Those are real issues. But the CFTC already has tools to deal with bad actors, and I think focusing on enforcement rather than broad bans is the way to go. Prediction markets aren't gambling; they're a tool for better information. Let's not throw that away.
I'm just a regular guy who wants to see better decision-making in our society, and I think prediction markets can help with that. I urge you to regulate them thoughtfully and avoid heavy-handed restrictions that could do more harm than good.
Sincerely,
Sebastian Gomez
