Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Bryan Coto, and I'm just a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, mostly to get a sense of what's likely to happen with elections and other big public events, and I think theyre a valuable tool that deserves fair regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions.
Ive noticed that prediction markets often give a clearer picture of whats coming than polls or TV pundits. I remember checking a platform like Kalshi before the last election, and the odds there were way closer to the actual result than what I heard on the news. That kind of forecasting isnt just helpful for me; its useful for everyone, from regular folks like me to businesses trying to plan ahead. I also think these markets let people hedge real risks. For example, if an election outcome could mess with my taxes or job prospects, putting a small bet down feels like a practical way to offset that uncertainty.
What worries me is the idea of banning or over-restricting these markets. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people will just turn to unregulated offshore platforms, which are way less safe. Id rather trade on a regulated site like Kalshi, where theres some oversight, than take my chances somewhere sketchy. Plus, I believe the U.S. should be leading the way on financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead while were stuck debating whether to shut things down.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has solid tools to tackle those issues in other markets. Why not use those same powers here instead of broad bans? I also dont think event contracts should be labeled as gaming. Theyre not slots or roulette; theyre based on research and real-world judgment, much like trading stocks. And honestly, informed trading makes the prices more accurate, which helps everyone, not just the traders.
I looked at some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 15 on defining gaming. My take is simple: focus on targeted rules for specific risks, not sweeping prohibitions. Lets keep these markets accessible and safe. I also think Question 29 about informed traders is important; their input makes the market smarter, and thats a public good.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep the U.S. at the forefront, protect users with smart rules, and let regular people like me benefit from these tools.
Sincerely,
Bryan Coto
