Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Carlton Hope, and I'm a student based in Pennsylvania. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who has used prediction markets a few times, I strongly support their existence under thoughtful, proportionate regulation by the CFTC. I believe these markets provide unique value and should not be overly restricted or banned.
I've always been interested in how information shapes decisions, and prediction markets have been eye-opening for me. They're not just a way to place a bet; they aggregate what people really think about events, often more accurately than polls or news commentary. As a student, I find this fascinating and useful for understanding the world. I've used platforms like Kalshi a handful of times to engage with questions about elections or economic indicators, and it feels like a legitimate way to participate in something bigger than myself. It's not gambling to me; it's about research and judgment, much like investing in stocks.
What concerns me most is the idea of shutting down or heavily restricting these markets. I believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets, and I think the CFTC has a chance to get this right. Regulated platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight as a designated contract market, are far safer than the alternative. If access to prediction markets is cut off here in the US, people like me won't just stop engaging. We'll end up on unregulated offshore platforms with no protections, no oversight, and no accountability. That seems like a much bigger risk to consumers than allowing well-regulated markets to operate.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. Regarding Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection under the public interest, I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance by offering transparency and accountability that unregulated spaces can't match. And on Question 29 about inside information, I believe the CFTC's existing tools to combat insider trading and manipulation are sufficient if applied properly. Banning entire markets to stop a few bad actors punishes everyone else and pushes activity to less safe venues.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with rules that address specific risks without broad prohibitions. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to regular people under your oversight. Don't let overregulation drive us to offshore sites where no one is watching out for us. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Carlton Hope
