Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Eric Grenadier, and I'm a trader and investor from Michigan. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets are valuable, and I want to share why I think the CFTC should support them with fair rules instead of overly restrictive bans.
As someone who trades regularly, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't just a hobby for me; they provide unique information I can't get from polls or news. Whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator, the prices on platforms like Kalshi often cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of what might happen. This isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, much like trading stocks or futures. I think it's important that regular people like me have access to these markets, not just big institutions. Keeping them open to everyone makes the information more accurate and fair.
What worries me is the idea of banning or over-restricting these markets. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, it won't stop prediction markets from existing; it'll just push the activity to unregulated offshore platforms. I've seen those sites, and they don't have the safeguards or oversight that a regulated market like Kalshi does. Trading there feels like a gamble in the worst way, with no real protection if something goes wrong. Regulated markets in the US are far safer for people like me, and they keep the activity under the CFTC's watch where you can actually enforce rules against manipulation or fraud.
On top of that, I believe the US should be leading the way in financial innovation. Prediction markets are a cutting-edge tool, and if we over-regulate or ban them, we're just handing the advantage to other countries. Why should we let places with looser rules take the lead on something that could benefit American traders and businesses? Let's set the standard instead of playing catch-up.
I also want to address some of the concerns in your questions, specifically around public interest and procedural aspects like those in Questions 7 and 23. I understand the need to protect consumers, but I think the answer is targeted regulation, not broad prohibitions. The CFTC already has tools to handle insider trading and manipulation in other markets; use those here too. Don't punish traders like me by shutting down something useful because of a few bad actors.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday traders, and focus on enforcing existing laws rather than banning or over-restricting. I'm happy to provide more input if it helps.
Sincerely,
Eric Grenadier
