Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jhon Line Be, and I'm a business owner based in Indiana. I run a small company that deals with supply chains and logistics, and I've come to rely on prediction markets as a tool to manage risks tied to economic and political events. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516, to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets and to urge the CFTC to avoid overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
For me, prediction markets aren't a game or a gamble. They're a practical way to hedge against uncertainties that directly impact my business. For instance, Ive used event contracts to offset risks related to potential tariff changes or election outcomes that could affect trade policies. This isn't speculation for fun; it's about protecting my bottom line. I strongly believe that classifying these contracts as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR, misses their real economic purpose. They help with price discovery and risk management, much like futures or options do for other industries. Treating them as gambling would be a mistake and could undermine their value to small businesses like mine.
I'm also concerned about U.S. competitiveness in financial innovation. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, activity will just move offshore to unregulated platforms. I've seen firsthand how easy it is to access foreign sites, but I'd much rather trade on a regulated U.S. exchange where there are protections in place. Pushing this industry overseas, as touched on in Questions 7-14 about public interest, would hurt American innovation and leave users like me with less safe options.
On a related note, Ive read some of the academic research about prediction markets, like studies by economists showing how they aggregate information better than polls. This ties into Questions 29-32 on inside information. I believe informed trading actually improves price accuracy, which benefits everyone, not just traders. The public gets better data, and businesses like mine can make smarter decisions. Of course, insider trading by federal officials is a concern, but that's already illegal. The CFTC should enforce existing laws rather than punish the entire market for the actions of a few.
I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to gather input on this. Prediction markets have real value, both for my business and for societys understanding of complex events. I urge you to craft proportionate regulations that address specific risks without stifling this innovative tool. Don't let heavy-handed rules or broad bans drive this market underground or overseas. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jhon Line Be
