Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tyler Miller, and I'm just an everyday citizen from North Carolina. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about things like elections and other public events that affect my life. Honestly, I've found the forecasts on these platforms to be more reliable than most polls or talking heads on TV. That kind of accuracy isn't just helpful for traders. It gives everyone, from regular folks to decision-makers, a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. I think that's a public good worth protecting. For me, having access to this kind of data helps me make smarter choices, whether it's planning around policy changes or just understanding the world a bit better.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are some form of gaming. That's not how I see it at all. Trading on these markets takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks or other financial products. It's about analyzing real-world events and putting your money where your analysis leads. Classifying this as gambling would be like calling any investment gambling, and I don't think that's fair or accurate. These contracts serve a real economic purpose, especially in terms of price discovery. When informed traders participate, the prices get sharper and more accurate, which benefits everyone who looks at the data, not just those placing trades.
I'm particularly interested in some of the questions you raised in the ANPR. For instance, in Questions 7 and 8 under the Public Interest section, you ask about balancing innovation with consumer protection and how prediction markets contribute to price discovery. I believe allowing these markets to operate with clear, fair rules encourages innovation while still protecting users. And as I mentioned, the price discovery aspect is huge. Its not just traders who benefit; it's anyone who uses this information to make decisions. Also, regarding Questions 29 and 30 on inside information, I think informed trading often improves accuracy. Yes, there are risks of misuse, but those are already illegal under existing laws, and the CFTC has tools to address bad actors without shutting down the whole market.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. Those are real issues. But banning or over-restricting prediction markets isn't the answer. Punishing everyone for the actions of a few bad actors doesn't make sense to me. Instead, I urge you to focus on targeted, proportionate regulations that address specific risks while letting these valuable markets continue to operate.
Thank you for considering my input. I hope the CFTC will support well-regulated prediction markets and avoid broad restrictions that could limit their benefits.
Sincerely,
Tyler Miller
