Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Bryan Gomez, and I'm a small business owner from New Jersey. I'm writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they offer real value to people like me, as well as to society at large.
As a business owner, I rely on accurate information to make decisions, whether it's about hiring, inventory, or planning for regulatory changes. I've found prediction markets to be a unique source of insight, often more accurate than polls or pundits when it comes to forecasting elections or other public events. For example, during the last election cycle, I checked platforms like Kalshi to get a sense of potential policy shifts that could affect my taxes and supply chain. That kind of data isn't just helpful for traders; it's useful for anyone trying to plan ahead. I think this price discovery benefits the public and even policymakers who need better information to make informed choices.
I also see prediction markets as a way for regular folks like me to hedge real risks. If an election outcome or a federal decision could impact my business, having a legal, regulated way to offset that uncertainty is a practical tool. It's not gambling, it's a calculated decision based on research and judgment, much like any other investment I make. Plus, allowing everyday people to participate keeps the system fair. If only big institutions can trade, they hoard all the valuable information, and the rest of us are left in the dark.
I'm aware of concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and those are valid worries. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these issues in other markets, and I believe those can be applied here without banning or over-restricting prediction markets. Shutting them down to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone for the actions of a few. I'd also urge the CFTC to consider the importance of U.S. leadership in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban these markets, we risk pushing activity to offshore platforms with no oversight, and we lose our edge to other countries eager to lead in this space.
Specifically, in response to Questions 7 and 8 under the Public Interest section, I believe prediction markets serve a clear public good through better forecasting and risk management, and the benefits of innovation outweigh the risks if regulation is targeted and proportionate. On Questions 29 and 30 regarding inside information, I think the existing laws against insider trading are a sufficient starting point, and the focus should be on enforcement, not prohibition.
I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't impose broad bans or overly restrictive rules that could stifle their potential. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Bryan Gomez
