Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Juan Bustamante, and Im a trader and investor based in Rhode Island. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support their regulation in a way that allows regular folks like me to participate while keeping the markets fair and safe.
I believe prediction markets are valuable for a few key reasons. First, they provide incredibly accurate forecasts on things like elections and other public events. Ive seen firsthand how the odds on these platforms often beat out polls or pundits. That kind of information isnt just useful to traders, its helpful to everyone who wants a clearer picture of what might happen. Second, as someone who works in trading, I see these markets as a space for innovation. The US has a chance to lead the world in developing new financial tools, but if we over-regulate or ban broad categories of event contracts, we risk pushing this growth to other countries. I dont want to see the US fall behind on something we can excel at.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading and manipulation. Im against insider trading as much as anyone, its unfair and wrong. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these issues in other markets, like stocks or commodities. Those same powers can be applied here. Shutting down or overly restricting prediction markets because of a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone for something thats already illegal. Instead, I think the focus should be on targeted rules that address specific risks without throwing out the whole concept.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, Id like to weigh in on a couple. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think allowing regulated prediction markets strikes that balance. They let everyday people like me participate legally while under CFTC oversight, which is way better than driving activity to unregulated offshore platforms. On Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe the answer isnt to ban these markets but to enforce existing laws against insider trading strictly. Regular traders arent the problem, and we shouldnt lose access because of potential misuse by others.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Focus on rules that target real risks while letting legal, regulated participation continue. This keeps the US competitive and ensures markets stay fair for everyone.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Juan Bustamante
