Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ross Holtrop, and I'm an everyday citizen from Michigan who actively trades on prediction markets like Kalshi. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, published in the Federal Register as 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I want to share why I think theyre valuable for people like me and for society as a whole.
As someone who trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand how these markets provide unique information that you just cant get from polls or news pundits. The prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced predictions about events, from elections to economic indicators. This isnt just helpful for traders; its useful for anyone making decisions, whether its a business owner planning around policy changes or a regular person like me trying to understand whats coming next. I believe this ties directly to your questions on public interest and price discovery in Topic Area B, specifically Questions 7 and 8. Prediction markets arent just a niche tool; they make better information available to everyone.
I also want to stress that these markets arent gambling, no matter what some might say. Trading on event contracts takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks or futures. I spend time reading up on issues before placing a trade, and Im using these markets to hedge personal risks, like how political outcomes might affect my taxes or job prospects. Classifying this as "gaming" under Topic Area C, particularly Question 15, would be a mistake. These contracts serve real economic purposes, and they should be treated as legitimate financial tools.
Another big concern for me is freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are safe and transparent. If you ban or over-restrict prediction markets, youll push people like me to unregulated offshore platforms with no protections. Id much rather trade in a system where the rules are clear and enforced. This relates to Questions 7 and 9 in Topic Area B about balancing innovation with consumer protection. Regulation is the answer, not prohibition.
Finally, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. Ive read about the academic research supporting prediction markets, like studies showing they improve forecasting and data transparency. Why should we cede this cutting-edge space to other countries? Lets keep this industry here, under proper oversight. This connects to Question 33 in Topic Area F about the broader impacts of classification and regulation. And on insider trading concerns from Topic Area E, I think informed trading actually sharpens price discovery, benefiting all of us. Existing laws already tackle bad actors; lets not punish everyone for the actions of a few.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday people like me, under clear and fair rules.
Sincerely,
Ross Holtrop
