Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Krystina Vargas, and I'm a healthcare professional from Nevada. I'm also a first-time mom juggling a full-time job, and in my limited spare time, I've started exploring prediction markets. I'm new to this space, but I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets are the future, and I want to share why I think the CFTC should regulate them thoughtfully rather than restrict or ban them.
As someone who values data and evidence in my work in healthcare, I'm impressed by the academic research behind prediction markets. Studies by economists show these markets often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or expert opinions. That kind of transparency and aggregated information is valuable, not just to traders like me, but to the public and even policymakers. I can see myself using these markets to better understand trends that affect my family, like economic policies or healthcare regulations, especially as a busy mom trying to plan for the future.
What really matters to me is that regulated platforms, like Kalshi operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If the U.S. cracks down too hard, people will just turn to those less secure options, and that puts everyone at risk. I've only just started trading, but I already feel more confident knowing a regulated market has rules and oversight to protect participants. Banning or over-restricting these markets would push activity into shadowy corners of the internet, and that's the last thing we need.
I also think the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. We're a country that sets trends, not follows them. If we stifle prediction markets with heavy-handed rules, we're handing the advantage to other nations willing to embrace this technology. As a healthcare worker, I see how innovation improves lives every day. Why shouldn't we apply that same mindset here? I'm particularly drawn to your questions 7 and 33 in the ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection and the costs of regulation. I urge you to prioritize rules that encourage growth while addressing specific risks, not broad prohibitions.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues in other markets. Use them here too, without punishing everyone else by shutting down something so promising. I'm just one voice, a working mom trying to learn and participate, but I believe prediction markets can benefit people like me if they're regulated fairly.
Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't let fear of a few bad actors derail a tool with so much potential for good.
Sincerely,
Krystina Vargas
