Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Rosendo Castro Jr., and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive under fair oversight.
I've been trading on prediction markets for a while now, and I've seen firsthand how they produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. For example, during the last election cycle, I relied on Kalshi's market data to get a clearer picture of likely outcomes than what I saw on TV or social media. These platforms aggregate information in a way that's hard to replicate, and that benefits everyone, not just traders. I also appreciate the freedom to participate in a legal, regulated space. It's empowering to have access to a tool that lets me engage with public events in a meaningful way, whether it's an election or an economic decision.
I'm aware of concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are issues to watch. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those problems in other markets, and I believe those can be applied here too. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets won't stop bad actors; it will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight at all. I've looked at some of those offshore sites, and they feel far riskier than a regulated market like Kalshi. Keeping these markets under CFTC supervision, with clear rules, is the best way to protect consumers like me.
I also think the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard, other countries will step in and take the lead, and we'll miss out on the benefits. Plus, there's solid academic research showing how prediction markets improve forecasting and transparency. That data shouldn't be ignored. I'm particularly interested in your questions 7 and 8 from the ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection, and questions 29 to 31 on insider trading. I urge you to focus on targeted rules for specific risks rather than broad restrictions that could stifle these markets.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't ban or overly restrict them. Keep them legal and regulated here in the U.S., where platforms like Kalshi can operate safely and transparently for everyday people like me. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Rosendo Castro Jr.
