Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Qwadaijhus Potts, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Virginia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I think theyre valuable for people like me and for society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that let these markets thrive without over-restricting them.
Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets give information you cant find anywhere else. Ive looked at their forecasts for things like elections or economic data releases, and theyre often way more accurate than polls or TV pundits. Thats not just helpful for traders like me; its useful for anyone who wants a clearer picture of what might happen. I also believe that having regular folks like me participate makes the data better. If only big institutions can trade, all the insights stay with them. Letting everyday people have a say feels fairer and sharpens the markets predictions.
I want to be clear that I dont see this as gambling. When I trade on Kalshi, Im doing research, reading up on events, and making judgments based on real-world information. Thats no different from what people do with stocks or commodities. Calling event contracts gaming feels wrong to me because they serve real purposes, like helping people hedge risks or figure out whats likely to happen. Ive used these markets to think through how election outcomes might affect my personal finances, and thats a practical tool, not a game.
Im also worried about what happens if these markets get banned or pushed too hard with rules. Regulated platforms like Kalshi are safe and transparent, with oversight to catch bad actors. If you make it too hard to operate here, people will just go to unregulated offshore sites, which are riskier for everyone. Plus, the US should be leading the way on financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead while we fall behind.
On the topic of informed trading, I think it actually helps. When people with good information trade, it makes the prices more accurate, and that benefits all of us. I know there are concerns about insider trading, but those laws already exist, and the CFTC has tools to enforce them. Banning whole markets over a few bad actors punishes the rest of us unfairly. Id point to Questions 7 and 29 in your ANPR, about balancing innovation with protection and the role of informed traders. I think the answer is clear: focus on enforcing existing rules, not creating broad restrictions.
I also appreciate the academic research behind prediction markets. Studies show theyre great at aggregating information, and that transparency helps everyone, not just traders. So, Im asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets grow while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Please dont ban or over-restrict them.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Qwadaijhus Potts
