Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Josue Lopez, and I'm an everyday citizen from Arizona writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support regulating them in a fair and balanced way rather than restricting or banning them outright.
I believe prediction markets are a valuable tool for regular people like me. They aren't just a game or gambling, which I know some folks worry about. When Ive traded on these platforms, its taken real effort, reading up on news, analyzing trends, and making judgments about what might happen. Thats no different from what people do when they invest in stocks or other markets. To me, event contracts serve a real economic purpose by helping us understand and prepare for the future, whether its an election outcome or an economic shift that could affect my budget.
What really stands out to me is how informed trading in these markets makes the prices more accurate, and that benefits everyone, not just the traders. When people who know something put their money where their mouth is, the market reflects better information. Ive seen this firsthand when I compared prediction market odds to what pundits were saying on TV. The markets were often closer to the truth. Shutting that down or over-regulating it would mean losing a unique source of insight that even non-traders can use, like journalists or regular folks just trying to make sense of the world.
I also want to address a concern I know the CFTC has, like in Questions 29 to 32 about inside information. I get why thats a worry, but I dont think the answer is to clamp down on the whole market. Insider trading is already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to catch bad actors. Punishing everyone by restricting prediction markets because a few might cheat feels unfair. Its like closing a highway because some people speed. Instead, focus on enforcing the rules we already have.
Im just a regular guy from Arizona, not an expert, but I think prediction markets give people like me a chance to engage with big issues in a meaningful way. Theyre not perfect, and Im all for oversight to prevent manipulation or abuse. But please dont overdo it with restrictions that push these markets offshore or out of reach for everyday citizens.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets that protects consumers while allowing innovation and access. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Josue Lopez
