Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Caleef Caldwell, and I'm a student from Connecticut. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to society and to individuals like me, and I want to share why I think the CFTC should encourage their growth with balanced oversight, not heavy-handed restrictions.
As a student, Im always looking for ways to better understand the world around me, whether its politics, economics, or even weather events that impact our daily lives. Prediction markets have been an incredible tool for me. Theyre not just a way to make a few bucks; they give me access to real-time information that I cant find in news articles or polls. The prices on these platforms often cut through the noise and reflect what people actually think will happen. Ive seen firsthand how these markets can predict election outcomes or economic trends more accurately than so-called experts. Thats not just useful for traders like me, but for anyone making decisions, from policymakers to everyday citizens.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. These platforms arent gambling dens; they require research, analysis, and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. Banning or over-restricting them would lock out regular people like me, leaving the benefits of this information to big institutions. I believe informed trading, even by everyday folks, improves price discovery and makes the markets predictions stronger. That benefits everyone, not just those placing bets. Regarding your questions 7 and 29, on public interest and inside information, Id argue that the presence of informed traders actually helps the market aggregate knowledge efficiently. The answer isnt to shut down access but to enforce existing laws against insider trading and manipulation, which the CFTC already has the power to do.
Im not blind to the risks. I get that some might try to game the system or use nonpublic info. But those are problems in every financial market, and the solution isnt to ban the whole thing. Its to target the bad actors with the tools you already have. Shutting down prediction markets would just push trading to unregulated offshore sites, which is worse for everyone.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while addressing specific risks. Let students like me, and others across the country, continue to engage with these platforms. Theyre a source of insight and a way to democratize information. Please dont close the door on this innovation.
Sincerely,
Caleef Caldwell
