Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tobin Gasparrelli, and Im just an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. I think theyre valuable for people like me, for businesses, and for society as a whole, and I want to explain why.
First off, prediction markets arent gambling. I put in real time and effort to research before I trade, whether its on election outcomes or economic indicators like CPI numbers. Its no different from studying a company before buying its stock. These markets let me hedge personal risks too. For example, Ive traded on election contracts because the outcome could impact my taxes or healthcare costs. Thats a real economic purpose, not a game. I also believe the prices on these markets are often more accurate than polls or pundits. Ive seen it myself on Kalshi, where the odds on big events have been closer to the mark than what I hear on the news. That kind of information helps everyone, not just traders.
Im also worried about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. Right now, trading on a regulated platform like Kalshi feels safe. I know theres oversight. But if you make it too hard to trade here, people will just go to unregulated offshore sites with no protections. Thats worse for consumer safety, not better. The CFTC already has strong tools to stop manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Use those same tools here instead of broad bans that push activity underground.
Id like to touch on a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the US should lead in financial innovation. If we dont, other countries will, and well lose out. On Question 15 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to see event contracts as economic tools for hedging and price discovery, not as games. And on Question 29 about inside information, I believe informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, benefiting all of us. The focus should be on enforcing existing laws against insider abuse, not restricting the whole market.
I get that there are risks with prediction markets, like potential manipulation. But shutting them down or over-regulating isnt the answer. Proportionate rules that target specific problems make more sense. These markets give regular folks like me a chance to participate, access better information, and manage real financial risks. Please dont take that away.
Thank you for considering my views. I ask that the CFTC support well-regulated prediction markets with targeted, fair rules instead of broad restrictions or bans.
Sincerely,
Tobin Gasparrelli
