Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Shannon Thomas, and I'm a small business owner from Mississippi. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support their role in providing valuable information, as long as theyre regulated properly.
Running a business means Im always looking for reliable ways to understand whats coming down the road, whether its an election outcome that could shift tax policies or a public event that might affect my supply chain. Prediction markets have given me a clearer picture than polls or TV pundits ever could. Ive seen firsthand how the prices on these platforms often cut through the noise and get closer to the truth. That kind of forecasting isnt just helpful for me, its a public good. It can inform decision-making for everyone, from regular folks like me to policymakers who need better data.
Im also a big believer in transparency. Theres a lot of academic research showing that prediction markets aggregate information efficiently, and I think thats something worth protecting. When people trade based on what they know, the prices get sharper, and that benefits all of us, not just the traders. Im particularly drawn to platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight. They feel safer and more accountable than unregulated offshore sites. If we ban or over-restrict these markets, people arent going to stop trading, theyll just go to those less safe places where theres no oversight at all. Thats not a solution, its a bigger problem.
I want to touch on a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the focus should be on targeted rules that address real risks like manipulation, not broad bans that kill innovation. And on Question 29, regarding informed trading, I believe its a net positive for price discovery. The CFTC already has tools to tackle insider trading or manipulation, so lets use those instead of punishing everyone by shutting down markets.
I know there are concerns about misuse, and I get that. But banning or heavily restricting prediction markets isnt the answer. Its like closing a highway because a few people speed. We need rules that make sense, rules that target the bad actors without hurting the rest of us who rely on these tools for better information.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them accessible, keep them safe, and dont let over-restriction push activity offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Shannon Thomas
