Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joshua Autmon, and I'm just a regular guy from Texas whos taken an interest in prediction markets. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope my perspective as an everyday citizen can help shape your approach.
I got into prediction markets because they give me a way to hedge against risks that affect my personal finances. For instance, Ive used Kalshi to place trades on economic indicators like inflation data, which directly impacts my budget for groceries and bills. Its not gambling to me; its a practical tool. I put in the time to research and make informed decisions, just like I would with any investment. Beyond my own use, I see how these markets provide valuable information. The prices often predict outcomes better than polls or news outlets, and that benefits everyone, not just traders like me.
What worries me is the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. Ive seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and theyre a mess. No oversight, no consumer protections. Id much rather trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi, where the CFTC keeps things fair. If you crack down too hard, people like me might get pushed to those shady sites, and thats worse for everyone. Plus, I believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. This shouldnt just be for big institutions. Regular folks like me deserve a seat at the table, and our participation makes the markets predictions stronger.
I also think the U.S. needs to stay competitive in financial innovation. If we over-regulate, other countries will take the lead, and well lose out. On the flip side, I get the concern about insider trading or manipulation. But arent those already illegal? The CFTC has the power to go after bad actors without shutting down entire markets. And honestly, informed trading isnt always bad. It helps the prices reflect reality, which helps everyone make better decisions. I think your questions 29 and 30 in the ANPR, about inside information and price discovery, get at this point, and Id urge you to focus on enforcing existing laws rather than broad bans.
Im not an expert, just a citizen who sees the value in these tools. I ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi safe and accessible for people like me, while using the tools you already have to stop any abuse.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Joshua Autmon
