Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jesse Coffey, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Kentucky writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their development under fair and sensible regulation. I believe these markets offer real value to people like me, and I want to see the CFTC create a framework that lets regular folks participate safely.
Ive been learning about prediction markets, and what strikes me is how they can help individuals and businesses manage real risks. For instance, a small business owner here in Kentucky could use these markets to hedge against policy changes or economic shifts that might hit their bottom line. Even for someone like me, having a way to offset uncertainties, like election outcomes affecting taxes, would be useful. I also wish platforms would make it easier to set a sell-out point or a specific buy price, which would help newcomers like me feel more confident jumping in.
Whats clear to me is that regulated markets, like Kalshi on a CFTC-registered platform, are a much safer bet than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the U.S. bans or over-restricts these markets, people will just turn to sketchy foreign sites with no oversight. Id rather see the CFTC set up strong consumer protections here at home. Plus, Ive read about academic studies showing prediction markets often beat polls or pundits in forecasting accuracy. That kind of transparent data is valuable to everyone, not just traders. The U.S. should be leading the way in this kind of financial innovation, not letting other countries take the reins.
I also think informed trading is a good thing. When people who know a lot about a topic trade, it makes the prices more accurate, and that benefits all of us by giving better information. Addressing some of the CFTCs questions, like in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe the balance should tilt toward innovation with smart rules for protection, not outright bans. And on Topic E about inside information (Questions 29-32), Id say the focus should be on enforcing existing laws against insider trading rather than limiting who can participate.
Im asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont shut them down or make the rules so tight that only big players can join. Let regular people like me have the freedom to take part in legal, regulated markets. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jesse Coffey
