Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jah Seales, and I'm a journalist based in New York. Ive spent years covering politics, policy, and public opinion, often digging through polls and expert takes to make sense of whats coming next. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to voice my support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe theyre a powerful tool for better public information and decision-making, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that support them rather than restrict them.
As a journalist, Im always hunting for reliable signals about the future, whether its an election outcome or an economic shift. Ive followed prediction markets for years, though I dont trade on them myself. What strikes me is how often their prices cut through the noise of punditry and biased surveys. Theyre not perfect, but they aggregate real-world insights in a way thats hard to find elsewhere. This isnt just useful for traders; its valuable for the public, journalists like me, and even policymakers who need clear data to guide decisions. The price discovery aspect of these markets, as raised in Questions 7 and 8 of the ANPR, is a public good that shouldnt be underestimated.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and those arent trivial. But shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets isnt the answer. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other derivatives markets, as noted in Questions 1 and 2. These can be adapted here without throwing out the baby with the bathwater. Banning broad categories of event contracts would just punish the majority who use these markets in good faith.
What worries me more is what happens if the U.S. clamps down too hard. Ive seen how unregulated offshore platforms operate with little oversight, and theyre far riskier for users than a regulated market like Kalshi, which operates under CFTC rules. As you consider the public interest in Questions 7 through 14, I hope youll weigh the reality that overly strict rules will push activity to less safe venues. Regulation done right keeps markets transparent and fair while letting innovation thrive.
Prediction markets arent gambling to me. Theyre a way to crowdsource knowledge, to put a price on uncertainty that affects us all. Im not asking for a free-for-all, just a balanced approach. Craft rules that target specific risks like insider trading, which is already illegal for federal employees, without stifling the benefits these markets bring to public understanding.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I strongly encourage the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid broad bans or excessive restrictions.
Sincerely,
Jah Seales
