Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Stephanie Simplice, and I'm a healthcare professional from New York. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm relatively new to these markets, but I see their potential to benefit people like me, as well as society at large, and I want to share my perspective.
As someone working in healthcare, I deal with a lot of uncertainty, not just in patient care but also in the financial side of my profession. Policies around insurance reimbursements, drug pricing, or even public health mandates can directly impact my income and planning. That's why I find prediction markets so intriguing. They offer a way to hedge against risks tied to political or economic events that affect my livelihood. For instance, being able to trade on the likelihood of a new healthcare policy passing could help me prepare for shifts in my budget or staffing needs. This isn't gambling, it's a practical tool for managing real-world risks.
Beyond personal use, I'm impressed by how prediction markets consistently produce more accurate forecasts than traditional polls or pundit opinions. I've seen firsthand how unreliable some election polls or policy predictions can be, and it affects trust in information. Prediction markets, on the other hand, aggregate what people actually believe, backed by their own money. That kind of data is invaluable, not just to traders but to the public, media, and even policymakers who need reliable insights. I think democratizing access to these markets is important. If only big institutions can participate, the best information stays locked away from regular folks like me.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and those shouldn't be ignored. But the CFTC already has strong tools to address fraud and abuse in other markets, and I believe those can be adapted here. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would hurt the majority of us who could benefit. Specifically, regarding Questions 7 and 8 in the ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection, I urge you to prioritize rules that target specific risks without stifling the markets' potential for price discovery and risk management.
Prediction markets have a real purpose, and I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation that allows them to thrive while addressing legitimate concerns. Let's not push this activity offshore to unregulated platforms. Keep it here, under oversight, where it can be safe and useful for Americans.
Thank you for considering my views.
Sincerely,
Stephanie Simplice
