Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mary Panas, and I'm a software engineer from Connecticut. I'm writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who's new to these markets, I've found them to be a genuinely fun way to stay informed about current events without getting sucked into endless doom scrolling on social media. More than that, though, I believe they offer real value to society, and I want to urge the CFTC to regulate them proportionately rather than imposing broad restrictions or bans.
I work in tech, so I'm always thinking about innovation and how the US can stay competitive. Prediction markets are a cutting-edge tool for aggregating information, often producing more accurate forecasts for elections and other public events than traditional polls or pundits. This isn't just trivia; better information helps everyone, from regular folks like me to policymakers. I've read about academic research backing this up, showing how these markets improve price discovery and transparency. The US should be leading in financial innovations like this, not falling behind other countries by over-regulating or shutting them down.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling in my view. They serve real economic purposes, like providing data for decision-making. Calling them "gaming" feels like a misstep when they take research and judgment, much like any other investment. On that note, I strongly support the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC bans or overly restricts these markets, people won't just stop trading; they'll go to less safe venues with no consumer protections. That's a worse outcome for everyone.
I'm aware of concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are issues. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other derivatives markets. Those same tools can be adapted here. Banning entire categories of contracts to stop a few bad actors feels like overkill when targeted rules could address specific risks. I'd encourage the CFTC to consider questions 7 and 15 from the ANPR, about balancing innovation with consumer protection and defining what counts as "gaming." I believe a proportionate approach, not broad prohibitions, is the way to go.
Prediction markets matter to me as a way to engage with the world, and they matter to society for the information they provide. I respectfully ask the CFTC to support regulated prediction markets with fair, targeted rules that keep innovation alive and protect consumers without pushing activity offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Mary Panas
