Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Thiasmy Selmour, and I'm a trader and investor based in North Dakota. I've been involved in various markets for years, always looking for ways to make informed decisions with my money. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I'm writing to support the idea of regulating them properly through the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets have real value, and I want to share why I think the CFTC should encourage their growth with fair rules, not heavy-handed restrictions.
As someone who trades and invests, I'm always after the best information I can get. Prediction markets have stood out to me because they often produce forecasts that are more accurate than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand. A couple of years ago, I was trying to gauge the likelihood of a major policy change that could affect my portfolio. The talking heads on TV were all over the place, and polls seemed to shift with every headline. But the prediction market I checked had a clear price signal, and it turned out to be right on the money. That kind of aggregated insight isn't something you can find just anywhere, and it's useful not just for me but for anyone trying to make sense of an uncertain world.
I also care deeply about the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't some shady backroom deal; the ones I've used are transparent and structured. Locking regular folks like me out of these markets would only hand the advantage to big institutions who already have enough of an edge. Keeping access open makes the information better for everyone, since more participants mean more data points. And honestly, I don't see this as gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. If anything, it's a way for people like me to stay engaged with real-world events.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that. But those issues are already illegal, and the CFTC has the power to go after bad actors. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few cheaters feels like punishing the rest of us who play by the rules. Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the answer is clear: focus on targeted enforcement of existing laws rather than broad bans. On Question 15, about defining what's legitimate versus gaming, I'd argue these markets serve a real economic purpose and shouldn't be lumped in with betting.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Let's keep them legal and accessible under fair rules, not push them offshore or kill them off. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Thiasmy Selmour
