Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brandon Schermett, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Idaho writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I want to urge the CFTC to craft rules that allow these markets to thrive under fair oversight.
Ive found prediction markets to be incredibly useful. Honestly, the forecasts they produce often beat out polls or pundits on TV. Ive seen this firsthand when trading on Kalshi, where the prices reflect real-time crowd wisdom about events like elections or economic data releases. That kind of insight isnt just helpful for traders, its valuable for anyone trying to understand whats coming next, whether its a journalist or a policymaker. Plus, letting regular folks like me participate feels right. Its not fair if only big institutions get access to this information.
I also think regulated markets are the way to go. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are so much safer than unregulated offshore sites. If you clamp down too hard, people will just go to those less secure places, and thats worse for everyone. I want to keep trading in a legal, transparent environment where I know there are rules in place. Speaking of rules, I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle issues like manipulation or insider trading. Theres no need to reinvent the wheel or ban entire markets to deal with a few bad actors. Just enforce whats already on the books.
Another thing that worries me is the idea of classifying event contracts as gaming. Thats not what this is. Trading on prediction markets takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Its a legitimate way to engage with the world, and sometimes even hedge against risks that affect my life. Also, informed trading isnt a problem, its a benefit. When people with knowledge trade, the prices get more accurate, and that helps everyone.
Id like to touch on a couple of your specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the U.S. has a chance to lead in financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead by over-restricting here. And for Question 15, on defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to see event contracts as economic tools, not gambling.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont ban or overly restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to regular people like me under fair, clear rules that protect us without stifling this valuable tool.
Sincerely,
Brandon Schermett
