Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Bryan Ledesma, and I'm an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on prediction markets like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of regulating these markets in a fair and balanced way instead of banning or over-restricting them.
I've found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for getting a clearer picture of what's likely to happen with elections and other public events. The forecasts on platforms like Kalshi often seem more reliable than what I hear from news outlets or polls. This isn't just helpful for me as a trader; it's valuable information for anyone paying attention to the world. Beyond that, I believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. As an ordinary person, I appreciate having access to tools that let me engage with big issues, and I think it's only fair that regular folks like me can take part alongside bigger players.
I want to stress that regulated markets are much safer than the alternative. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans prediction markets, people won't just stop trading. They'll go to unregulated offshore platforms instead, where theres no oversight, no consumer protection, and no accountability. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. Plus, the government would miss out on significant tax revenue if activity moves overseas. Honestly, I think people like me are more willing to pay taxes through regulated markets because we know the system is transparent and legitimate.
I also dont see event contracts as gaming. Trading on these markets takes research and thought, much like investing in stocks. They serve real purposes, like helping people understand risks and make informed decisions. Classifying them as gambling feels like a misstep. And on a broader level, I think the US should be leading the way in financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead while we hold back.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a couple from the Public Interest section, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think the answer is clear regulation, not prohibition. Regulated platforms like Kalshi already have safeguards in place, and the CFTC can build on those. Also, for Question 15 in the Listed Activities section about defining gaming, I urge you not to lump event contracts in with gambling. Theyre a different animal, focused on real-world outcomes and economic value.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont ban or overly restrict them. Keep these markets accessible, safe, and innovative right here in the US. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Bryan Ledesma
