Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brandon Campbell, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Virginia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've taken the time to learn about them, and I strongly support their development under fair and balanced regulation. I believe these markets offer real value to people like me, and I hope my perspective can help shape how you approach this issue.
First off, I want to say that I don't see event contracts as gambling. To me, they serve a real purpose in the economy. When people trade on these markets, they're using research and judgment to predict outcomes, much like they do with stocks or other investments. It's about understanding the world around us, not just rolling the dice. For example, someone might use a prediction market to hedge against a policy change that could affect their small business or personal finances. That kind of practical use shouldn't be lumped in with gaming, and I urge you to recognize this distinction when answering questions like 15 through 22 in the ANPR about defining gaming versus legitimate market activity.
I'm also concerned that if we over-restrict or ban these markets, the United States risks falling behind. We should be leading the way in financial innovation, not letting other countries take the lead while we hesitate. Prediction markets can be a powerful tool for gathering information and forecasting events more accurately than polls or pundits. Why would we want to cede that advantage? I think your questions 7 through 14 on balancing innovation and public interest hit on this point, and I hope you'll prioritize keeping the U.S. at the forefront.
Lastly, I want to address the worries about manipulation and insider trading. I get that these are serious concerns, but the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle them. You've got the authority to go after bad actors in any regulated market, and those rules can apply to prediction markets just as well. Banning or over-regulating these markets to stop a few wrongdoers feels like punishing everyone else who wants to participate honestly. I'd encourage you to focus on enforcing the existing safeguards, as discussed in questions 1 through 6 and 29 through 32, rather than creating broad restrictions that hurt regular folks like me.
I appreciate the chance to weigh in on this. Prediction markets are something I believe can benefit society if done right. Please support proportionate regulation that allows these markets to grow while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Don't let overcaution hold us back.
Sincerely,
Brandon Campbell
