Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John David, and I'm a trader and investor based in Washington state. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me, and I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation rather than overly restrictive rules or bans.
As someone who trades regularly, I find prediction markets to be an incredible source of information that you just can't get from polls or pundits. They're often more accurate, and they help me make better decisions, not just in trading but in understanding the world. I also think it's important that regular folks like me can participate in these markets. If only big institutions get access, all that valuable insight stays locked away with them. Democratizing access makes the system fairer and the predictions sharper. Plus, this isn't gambling, it's research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities.
One specific area I'm passionate about is the ability to trade on sports-related outcomes. For instance, having event contracts tied to Major League Soccer or FIFA World Cup games would be fantastic. It would let fans like me engage more deeply with the sports we love while using our knowledge to inform market prices. I understand there are concerns about gaming, but I believe clear rules can separate legitimate markets from gambling, and I'm confident the CFTC can strike that balance.
I'm also very concerned about the idea of pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms. I've traded on Kalshi, which operates under CFTC oversight, and I feel much safer knowing there are rules and protections in place. If prediction markets face heavy restrictions or bans, people will just turn to offshore sites with no oversight, no consumer protections, and no accountability. That's a much bigger risk than any issues in regulated markets. Addressing Questions 7 and 14 from the ANPR, I think the public interest is best served by fostering innovation through regulated platforms rather than driving activity into the shadows.
I get that there are worries about insider trading or manipulation. But those are already illegal, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce against bad actors. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets punishes honest participants like me instead of targeting the real problems. Let's focus on strong enforcement of existing laws, not broad prohibitions.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday traders, ensure oversight to prevent abuse, and don't let unnecessary restrictions drive activity offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
John David
