Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Oliver Standring, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe these markets are a vital tool for people like me to access accurate information, hedge personal risks, and participate in a fair, regulated financial system. I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets rather than imposing broad bans or overly restrictive rules.
As someone who follows elections and public events closely, I've found prediction markets to offer forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. Ive seen this firsthand on Kalshi, where the odds on election outcomes cut through the noise of opinion pieces and give me a clearer picture of whats likely to happen. This isnt just useful for traders; its valuable for anyone making decisions based on future events, whether its a business owner planning around policy changes or a citizen trying to understand the political landscape. I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like betting on economic indicators that affect my budget, such as inflation data impacting my rent or grocery costs.
Im concerned about the idea of classifying event contracts as gaming. Trading on Kalshi isnt a game of chance; it takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. These contracts serve real economic purposes, from price discovery to risk management. Calling them gambling feels like a misunderstanding of their value. Plus, regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, itll just push activity to less secure venues where theres no oversight. Id rather see the US lead in financial innovation and keep these markets safe and transparent here at home.
On specific points in your ANPR, Id like to address Questions 7 and 8 under Public Interest. Prediction markets balance innovation with consumer protection when theyre regulated properly, as they are on platforms like Kalshi. They also aid price discovery in ways traditional methods cant match. For Questions 29 and 30 on inside information, I believe informed trading actually improves market accuracy and benefits everyone by reflecting the best available data in prices. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other markets; those can be applied here without banning entire categories of contracts. Broad prohibitions, as hinted at in Questions 15-22 on listed activities, would punish legitimate users like me instead of targeting bad actors.
I urge you to craft rules that address specific risks with targeted solutions, not sweeping restrictions. Prediction markets are a powerful tool for forecasting, hedging, and civic engagement. Lets keep them accessible, regulated, and innovative right here in the US. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Oliver Standring
