Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tim Tesluck, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been involved in various financial markets for years, and I've used prediction markets a few times to gain insights and manage risks. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer unique value to society and to people like me who rely on accurate information to make decisions.
Prediction markets stand out because they often produce forecasts that are more accurate than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand. A couple of years ago, I was trying to gauge the outcome of a major policy decision that could have impacted some of my investments. Traditional news sources and expert opinions were all over the place, but the prediction market I checked had a clear, data-driven signal that turned out to be spot on. That kind of aggregated information isn't just helpful for traders like me, its valuable for anyone trying to understand what might happen next, whether its the public, businesses, or even policymakers. I think this ties directly to your questions in Topic Area B, especially Question 7, about how these markets serve the public interest through price discovery. In my view, theyre an unmatched tool for cutting through noise.
I also care deeply about having the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, provide a safe and transparent way to trade event contracts. Ive used these platforms and felt confident knowing there are rules in place to prevent manipulation and ensure fairness. Compare that to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight, no accountability, and far more risk of fraud. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans prediction markets, I worry that activity will just move to those less safe venues. This relates to Question 14 in your ANPR about balancing innovation and consumer protection. I believe regulation, not prohibition, is the way to protect users while fostering innovation.
I understand there are concerns about insider trading or market manipulation, and those are valid. But the CFTC already has tools to address these issues in other markets, and I trust you can adapt them here without shutting down an entire industry. Banning prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would punish everyone else who uses them responsibly.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont impose broad bans or overly restrictive rules that could stifle their potential. Focus on targeted solutions to specific risks while preserving access for regular people like me who value these markets for their information and opportunities.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Tim Tesluck
