Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jonathan Vriesema, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Washington state writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a financial expert or a lawyer, just someone who has found real value in trading on prediction markets like Kalshi, and I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than banning or over-restricting them.
I started using Kalshi a while back because I was frustrated with how hard it is to get reliable information about things like election outcomes or other big public events. Polls and pundits are often all over the place, but the prices on prediction markets seem to cut through the noise. Ive used them to get a sense of whats likely to happen in elections, and its helped me make better personal decisions, like planning around potential policy changes that could affect my budget. I know Im not alone in finding this useful. These markets arent just for traders; the information they produce helps everyone, from regular folks like me to businesses trying to plan ahead.
I also want to be clear that I dont see this as gambling at all. When I trade on Kalshi, Im researching, reading up on candidates or events, and using my judgment, just like I would if I were investing in stocks. Its about understanding the world, not rolling dice. Plus, these markets let people hedge real risks. For instance, if an election could lead to a tax change that hits my wallet, trading on an outcome helps me offset that uncertainty. Businesses can do the same for bigger risks, like regulatory shifts. This is a legitimate economic tool, and I think the CFTC should recognize that in response to questions 15-22 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
Im also worried about what happens if these markets get over-restricted or banned. Right now, platforms like Kalshi are regulated and based in the US, which means theres oversight and I feel safer trading there. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people like me will just turn to offshore platforms with no rules or protections. Thats worse for everyone. I think the CFTC should focus on keeping markets like Kalshi strong and well-regulated, as discussed in questions 7-14 about balancing innovation and consumer protection.
One last point: I believe informed trading actually makes these markets better. When people with good information trade, the prices get more accurate, and that benefits all of us. Banning markets because of worries about insider trading, as raised in questions 29-32, doesnt make sense when laws already exist to stop that kind of abuse. Dont punish the rest of us by shutting down something valuable.
I hope the CFTC will support fair, balanced rules for prediction markets. Theyre a useful tool for forecasting and hedging, and with proper oversight, they can thrive safely in the US. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jonathan Vriesema
