Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is XTZ Arsenal, and I'm writing to you from Georgia as someone who actively uses prediction markets for hedging and risk management. I'm not a big institution or a Wall Street trader, just a regular person who sees real value in these markets. Im reaching out in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for proportionate, well-thought-out regulation of event contracts rather than broad restrictions or bans.
Ive found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for managing financial risks tied to events beyond my control. For instance, I use platforms like Kalshi to hedge against economic or political outcomes that could impact my personal finances, like shifts in policy that affect costs I deal with every day. This isnt gambling to me. Its a practical tool, much like how someone might use futures to lock in prices for crops or fuel. These contracts serve a real economic purpose, and I believe the CFTC should recognize that by not classifying them as gaming, as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR.
Beyond my own use, I see prediction markets as a public good. They consistently produce forecasts for elections and other events that are more accurate than polls or pundits. That kind of information helps everyone, not just traders. It aids in better decision-making and price discovery, which ties into Questions 7-14 on public interest. I also think allowing informed trading, as raised in Questions 29-32, actually improves those prices. Banning or over-restricting these markets would just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe for consumers like me. Regulation under the CFTC, with proper oversight, is the better path.
Im also concerned about U.S. competitiveness. We should be leading the way in financial innovation, not letting other countries take the reins. Overly harsh rules could stifle growth in this space, and I urge you to focus on targeted regulations that address specific risks like manipulation or insider trading, rather than broad categorical bans. This aligns with the discussion in Questions 1-6 on core principles. On top of that, I believe its time for a new regulatory body focused on prediction markets, digital assets, and blockchain technology to ensure clear, modern rules that protect consumers while fostering innovation.
Prediction markets are a powerful tool for individuals like me to hedge real risks and for society to gain better insights. I ask that the CFTC craft rules that support their growth under a regulated framework, ensuring safety without shutting down access. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
XTZ Arsenal
