Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Aidan Honor, and I'm a student from New Hampshire. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they provide unique value to society and to people like me who want access to better information and fair financial tools.
As a student, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights that you just cant get from polls or pundits. Ive used platforms like Kalshi to follow election forecasts and economic events, and Im consistently amazed at how accurate the market prices are compared to traditional sources. This isnt just useful for traders; its valuable for everyone, from journalists to policymakers, who need reliable data to make decisions. I think the CFTC should recognize this public benefit, especially in response to Questions 7 and 8 under the Public Interest section of the ANPR, where you ask about balancing innovation with consumer protection. Prediction markets are innovative, and they democratize access to information.
I also want to stress that these markets arent gambling. Trading on event contracts takes real research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Classifying them as gaming, as discussed in Questions 15 and 16 under Listed Activities, ignores their legitimate economic purpose. For instance, Ive used prediction markets to hedge personal financial risks, like betting on interest rate decisions that affect my student loans. This kind of hedging is practical, not recreational, and it should be treated as a serious financial tool.
Another concern I have is what happens if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. I believe regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If you make it too hard to trade legally in the US, people will just turn to less secure, foreign sites where theres no oversight. Thats worse for consumer protection, not better. I urge you to consider this in relation to Questions 33 and 34 under Classification and Costs-Benefits, where you ask about regulatory impacts. Keeping prediction markets under CFTC supervision ensures accountability and safety.
Finally, I worry about the US falling behind in financial innovation. We should be leading the way on new tools like prediction markets, not ceding ground to other countries. Im just a student, but I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets, and I want to see America stay competitive. I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without stifling these markets or pushing activity offshore. Lets keep prediction markets accessible and safe for everyone.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Aidan Honor
