Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ambrose Daye, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Maryland writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe well-regulated prediction markets have real value for people like me and for society as a whole. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on this.
I support prediction markets because they give information you can't find anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections and public events beat out polls and pundits time and again. When I'm trying to understand what's really likely to happen, whether it's a presidential race or a major policy shift, the prices on these markets cut through the noise. That accuracy isn't just helpful to traders like me; it benefits everyone who wants a clearer picture of the future, from journalists to regular folks making decisions.
But here's the thing. I worry about what happens if these markets aren't regulated properly. Right now, I trade on a platform like Kalshi because it's regulated by the CFTC, and I feel safer knowing there are rules in place. If the U.S. cracks down too hard or bans these markets outright, people like me will just turn to offshore platforms with no oversight. Those places are riskier, with no consumer protections. I'd much rather see the CFTC keep markets here in the U.S. under a sensible framework. Plus, the U.S. should be leading the way on financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. Trading on these markets isn't a game of chance. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. I'm not rolling dice; I'm making informed bets on real-world outcomes. And the CFTC already has strong tools to handle manipulation or insider trading in other markets. I believe those same tools can work for prediction markets without needing overly restrictive rules.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I think my views tie directly to Questions 7 and 8 on balancing innovation with consumer protection. Regulation should encourage safe, accessible markets while preventing harm, not shut them down. On Questions 15 and 16 about defining gaming, I urge you to recognize that these contracts serve real economic purposes like forecasting and risk management, not entertainment.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them safe and accessible here in the U.S. for people like me who find them valuable. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Ambrose Daye
