Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jose Marron, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've been learning about them, and I strongly support their development under fair, sensible regulation by the CFTC. I believe these markets offer unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I want to explain why I think they should be encouraged rather than overly restricted.
First off, I've seen how prediction markets can provide information that's just not available anywhere else. From what I've read, their forecasts often beat out polls and pundits when it comes to predicting elections or economic events. That's a public good, not just for traders but for anyone making decisions based on what's likely to happen, whether it's a voter, a journalist, or a small business owner. I also appreciate that these markets let everyday people like me participate. It's not fair if only big institutions get access to this kind of tool while the rest of us are shut out. Democratizing that access feels right, and I think it makes the predictions stronger by bringing in more perspectives.
I also don't see this as gambling, and Im concerned about event contracts being labeled that way. To me, trading on these markets seems closer to investing in stocks or commodities. It takes research and real-world judgment, not just luck. Plus, there's a practical side. I've been thinking about how I could use a prediction market to hedge risks that affect my life, like an election outcome that might change tax policies or regulations that impact my budget. Thats not a game; its a way to protect myself financially.
Im also aware of worries about insider trading or manipulation, but I dont think the answer is banning these markets. Those issues are already illegal, and the CFTC has the power to go after bad actors. Shutting down prediction markets because of a few potential cheaters feels like overkill, especially when regulated platforms like Kalshi are a much safer option than unregulated offshore sites. Pushing activity overseas just makes things riskier for everyone. And on the flip side, informed trading can actually help. When people with knowledge trade, it improves price discovery, and that benefits all of us by making the markets predictions more accurate.
I noticed a few questions in the ANPR that tie into my views. For Question 7 under Public Interest, Id say prediction markets do serve the public by improving information for decision-making. For Question 15 under Listed Activities, I urge you not to classify event contracts as gaming since they have real economic purposes like hedging. And for Question 29 on Inside Information, I believe informed traders can make markets more accurate, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont ban or over-restrict them. Theyre a valuable tool for people like me, and with the right oversight, they can thrive safely.
Sincerely,
Jose Marron
