Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ryan Ward, and I'm a trader and investor based in Texas. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why I think the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation instead of heavy restrictions or outright bans.
As someone who trades regularly, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. These platforms give me a way to hedge against real-world uncertainties, whether it's an election outcome that could impact my investments or an economic policy shift that might affect my portfolio. The information I get from prediction market prices is often more reliable than what I see in polls or news commentary. But what matters most to me is that these markets are regulated here in the US. I know my funds are safer on a CFTC-registered platform than they would be on some offshore site with no oversight. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people like me won't just stop trading. We'll get pushed to unregulated, offshore alternatives where there's no consumer protection at all. Thats a worse outcome for everyone.
I also believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard on prediction markets, we're handing the advantage to other countries that are more open to new ideas. The CFTC already has solid tools to handle issues like manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. I trust those same tools can work here without resorting to broad, categorical bans. Targeted rules that address specific risks make a lot more sense to me than shutting down an entire industry because of a few potential bad actors.
On some of the specific questions in the ANPR, like those in Topic B on Public Interest (Questions 7-14), Id urge the CFTC to consider how regulated prediction markets balance innovation with consumer safety better than offshore options. And for Topic D on Procedural Aspects (Questions 23-28), I think public interest determinations should prioritize keeping legitimate markets accessible while focusing enforcement on real threats, not hypothetical ones.
Im not blind to the concerns about manipulation or misuse. I get it. But the answer isnt to overreact and punish law-abiding traders like me. Please support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets open, safe, and based in the US. Lets lead the world in this space, not fall behind.
Sincerely,
Ryan Ward
