Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Shelbi Norton, and I'm a single mother and small business owner from Utah. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm new to prediction markets, but I've been learning through platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support their regulation in a fair and balanced way. They've already helped me in ways I didn't expect, and I believe they can benefit many others too.
Running a small business while raising kids isn't easy. Every dollar counts, and so does every piece of information I can get about what's coming down the road. Prediction markets have given me a way to understand things like election outcomes or economic shifts that could impact my costs or taxes. Honestly, the forecasts on these platforms seem way more accurate than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. That kind of insight helps me plan better, whether it's for my business inventory or personal finances. I've even used some of the information to hedge risks, like potential policy changes that could hit my bottom line. It's not just theory; it's practical.
I also value the freedom to participate in a legal, regulated market like Kalshi. As a regular person, I don't have access to the fancy tools or insider networks that big institutions do. Prediction markets level the playing field a bit, letting someone like me have a stake in understanding public events. And I don't see this as gambling at all. It takes research and judgment, just like any other investment. Calling event contracts "gaming" feels wrong when they serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks or discovering better information for everyone.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has strong tools to handle those issues, just like in other markets. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets won't solve those problems; it'll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight at all. I'd much rather see proportionate rules that target specific risks while keeping these markets accessible. I'm also worried that if we don't support innovation here, the US will lose its edge to other countries. We should be leading on this, not stepping back.
Looking at some of your specific questions, like in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I think prediction markets clearly help with price discovery and risk management for regular people and businesses. On Topic C (Questions 15-22), I urge you not to classify these as gaming, since theyre about real-world outcomes with economic value. And on Topic E (Questions 29-32), I believe informed trading actually improves accuracy, benefiting everyone, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
Please support well-regulated prediction markets with targeted rules, not broad bans. Theyre a tool I rely on, and they can help so many others if done right.
Sincerely,
Shelbi Norton
