Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Chase Bybee, and I'm just a regular citizen from Idaho writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I hope my perspective as an everyday user can help shape rules that make sense for people like me.
I got into prediction markets because they give me a way to engage with the world around me, from elections to economic indicators. The information I get from market prices often feels more reliable than what I hear from news or polls. It's not just about making a few bucks; it's about having a stake in understanding what's happening. I believe these markets aren't gambling. They take research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Labeling them as "gaming" feels off to me when Im putting in real effort to make informed trades. Plus, academic studies I've read about, from economists like Hanson and Wolfers, back this up. They show prediction markets aggregate information better than most other methods.
I also care about keeping the US competitive in financial innovation. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, we're just pushing people like me to unregulated offshore platforms. I've seen those sites out there, and they don't have the safeguards that a CFTC-registered platform like Kalshi offers. Regulated markets are safer, with transparency and rules to protect users. Driving activity overseas doesn't solve problems; it makes them worse. I want the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets here at home.
On the topic of risks, I know the CFTC is worried about manipulation and insider trading, and I get that. But aren't there already strong tools in place to handle this? The CFTC has authority to go after bad actors in any regulated market. I think the focus should be on enforcing those existing rules, not creating broad restrictions that hurt regular traders like me. This ties into some of your questions, like numbers 7 and 8 on balancing innovation with consumer protection, and number 29 on insider trading concerns. I'm all for smart oversight, but let's not throw out the whole concept of prediction markets just because of a few potential issues.
In the end, Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday folks like me, with rules that tackle real risks without shutting down innovation. Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts, and I hope you'll consider my perspective as you move forward.
Sincerely,
Chase Bybee
