Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Caden Haley, and I'm a business owner from North Carolina. I run a small company here, and Ive been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now. Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets are valuable, not just for me, but for society as a whole, and I urge you to craft rules that protect consumers without stifling this innovative tool.
As a business owner, I deal with uncertainty every day, whether its policy changes, economic shifts, or even weather events that could impact my operations. Prediction markets give me a way to hedge some of those risks. More than that, they provide information I cant get anywhere else. Ive seen firsthand how these markets often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or pundits. That kind of insight helps me make better decisions for my business and even in my personal finances. Its not gambling, not by a long shot. Trading on these platforms takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks or commodities. These event contracts serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and risk management, and I think its a mistake to label them as gaming.
I also value my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. Regulation is crucial, but it needs to be balanced. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people like me will get pushed to unregulated offshore platforms that offer no consumer protections. Id much rather trade on a platform overseen by the CFTC, where there are safeguards in place. The U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries by driving this activity underground.
On specific points in your ANPR, I want to address Questions 7 and 8 under Public Interest. I believe prediction markets do serve the public good by producing better forecasts and allowing everyday folks like me to participate. Informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting everyone, not just traders. As for concerns about manipulation or insider trading raised in Questions 29-32, I think the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues. You dont need to ban entire markets to stop a few bad actors; just enforce the rules youve got.
Im not blind to the risks, and I support smart regulation to protect consumers. But please dont shut down or over-restrict prediction markets. Theyre a powerful tool for people like me, and with the right oversight, they can thrive safely. I urge you to adopt proportionate rules that keep these markets accessible and regulated here in the U.S.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Caden Haley
