Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Austin Pearson, and I'm a software engineer based in New York. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to society, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow them to thrive while addressing legitimate concerns.
Ive been trading on prediction markets for a while now, focusing on events like elections and economic indicators. What draws me to these markets is how they cut through noise and deliver information you cant find elsewhere. In my field, data drives decisions, and Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets often outpace polls or pundits in forecasting outcomes. For instance, during the last election cycle, platforms like Kalshi gave me a clearer picture of voter sentiment than any news outlet. This isnt just useful for traders like me; its valuable for journalists, policymakers, and anyone trying to understand whats really happening. I think this ties directly to your questions in the Public Interest section, like Question 7, about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I believe the forecasting power of these markets is a public good worth protecting.
I also want to stress that regulated markets are the way to go. I use Kalshi because its overseen by the CFTC, which gives me confidence that there are rules against manipulation and fraud. If heavy restrictions or bans push activity to offshore, unregulated platforms, its not just traders who lose out; the public misses that reliable data too. This connects to Question 10, on how prediction markets contribute to price discovery. Keeping them regulated here in the US ensures better, safer information for everyone.
Lastly, Ive heard concerns about insider trading or informed traders skewing things, as raised in Questions 29 and 30 under Inside Information. But I think informed trading actually helps. When people with real knowledge trade, prices get sharper and more accurate, which benefits all of us. The CFTC already has tools to tackle abuse like insider trading or manipulation, and I trust you can apply those without shutting down the whole system. Banning these markets to stop a few bad actors would be a loss for the rest of us.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets grow while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Please dont over-restrict or ban them. Theyre too valuable for that.
Sincerely,
Austin Pearson
