Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Julian Rippert, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me, and to society as a whole, and I urge you to craft rules that encourage innovation while addressing risks sensibly.
As a trader, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights you cant get from polls or pundits. Their forecasts are often more accurate because they aggregate real financial stakes from a wide range of participants. Thats not just useful for traders; its valuable for anyone making decisions, whether its a business planning for policy changes or a regular person trying to understand the likelihood of an economic shift. Ive used these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like potential tax changes tied to election outcomes, and its a legitimate tool for managing uncertainty, not some game of chance. Calling event contracts gaming ignores their real economic purpose, like price discovery and risk management. Its no different from trading futures or stocks based on research and judgment.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated platforms like Kalshi. These markets are safer and more transparent than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans prediction markets, activity will just move to less secure venues, which helps no one. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. Regulation is important, but it needs to be proportionate. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Those same tools can work here without shutting down an entire industry. And lets be honest, informed trading isnt a bug; its a feature. When knowledgeable participants trade, prices get sharper, and that benefits everyone.
Id like to address a few specific questions from your ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I believe prediction markets serve the public by providing better information for decision-making. On Question 15, about defining gaming, I strongly argue that event contracts arent gambling; theyre tools for hedging and discovery, much like other derivatives. And on Question 29, about inside information, I think informed trading generally improves price accuracy, and existing laws already bar federal officials from abusing nonpublic info. Focus on enforcing those, not broad restrictions.
I ask you to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive under clear, fair rules. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Lets keep the U.S. at the forefront of financial innovation while protecting participants through smart oversight.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Julian Rippert
