Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Casey Corbett, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Florida writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will approach regulation in a balanced way.
I rely on prediction markets for accurate forecasting, especially around elections and major public events. I've found that the prices on these platforms often cut through the noise of polls and pundits, giving me a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. This isn't just helpful for traders; it's useful information for anyone paying attention. Beyond that, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. These platforms let regular folks like me have a stake in understanding the world, and that's a good thing. I don't see this as gambling at all. Trading on event contracts takes research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. These contracts serve real economic purposes, whether it's hedging against uncertainty or contributing to better price discovery.
I do understand concerns about risks like manipulation or insider trading, but I don't think the answer is to ban or heavily restrict these markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If the U.S. cracks down too hard, people will just turn to those less secure options, and that helps no one. Instead, the U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the reins on something with so much potential. I'm all for regulation, but it needs to be proportionate. Target the specific risks with focused rules rather than broad, sweeping bans that punish everyone.
I noticed a few questions in the ANPR that tie directly to my concerns. For instance, in Questions 7-14 under Public Interest, you ask about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think regulated markets strike that balance by keeping activity transparent and accountable while still allowing new ideas to grow. Also, in Questions 23-28 on Procedural Aspects, you discuss how to make public interest determinations. I urge you to avoid categorical restrictions and instead look at contracts case by case to ensure legitimate markets aren't unfairly blocked.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support prediction markets with thoughtful, targeted regulation. Don't let over-restriction push activity offshore or stifle a valuable tool for forecasting and economic participation. Thank you for considering my perspective as you shape these rules.
Sincerely,
Casey Corbett
