Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Antoine Jones, and I'm a small business owner from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive been following this issue closely because I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe well-regulated prediction markets are valuable for people like me and for society as a whole.
Running a small business means Im constantly trying to anticipate changes that could affect my bottom line, whether its shifts in policy after an election or broader economic trends. Prediction markets give me a unique tool to gauge whats coming. Ive found their forecasts on elections and public events to be far more accurate than polls or pundits on TV. That kind of insight helps me plan better, whether Im deciding when to expand or how to budget for potential regulatory changes. Beyond my own use, I think these markets benefit everyone by aggregating information in a way nothing else does.
I also use prediction markets to hedge financial risks tied to my business. For example, trading on outcomes related to economic indicators helps me offset uncertainties that could impact my costs or revenue. This isnt gambling, not by a long shot. It takes research and real-world judgment, much like any other investment I make. Classifying event contracts as gaming, as some have suggested, ignores their legitimate economic purpose. I urge you to recognize this distinction when addressing questions like 15 through 22 in the ANPR about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
Im also concerned about what happens if these markets are banned or over-restricted. I trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi because it feels safer, with oversight I can trust. If heavy-handed rules push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, thats worse for everyone. Its not just about access; its about keeping participants protected. On a broader level, I believe the US should be leading in financial innovation, not letting other countries take the reins. Stifling prediction markets would be a step backward. I hope youll consider these points when looking at questions 7 through 14 on balancing innovation and consumer protection.
Lastly, I want to touch on the role of informed trading, related to questions 29 through 32. I believe traders with good information improve price discovery, which helps all of us. Banning markets to stop a few bad actors doesnt make sense when the CFTC already has tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading. Lets not punish the many for the actions of a few.
I strongly support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont ban or overly restrict them. Focus on targeted rules that address specific risks while preserving the benefits these markets provide. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Antoine Jones
