Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jesus Bautista, and I'm an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive while addressing legitimate concerns.
I've found prediction markets to be incredibly useful in ways that polls or pundits just can't match. For example, during the last election cycle, I followed the odds on Kalshi about key swing states. Those prices gave me a clearer picture of what might happen than any news segment or survey I saw. It's not just about trading; it's about accessing information that's more accurate because it reflects what people are willing to bet on, not just what they say. This kind of forecasting isn't a game. It's a tool that helps regular folks like me make sense of uncertain events, and I think that benefits everyone, whether they trade or not.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. When I trade on outcomes like inflation numbers or election results, I'm using research and judgment, much like I would with stocks or other investments. These markets let me hedge against things that affect my life, like policy changes that might impact my cost of living. That's a real economic purpose, not a roll of the dice. Calling this "gaming" feels like a misunderstanding of what these platforms do.
On consumer protection, I get that there are risks. I've heard stories of shady offshore platforms where there's no oversight. That's exactly why I think the CFTC should regulate prediction markets here at home rather than push them underground or overseas. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC rules, give me confidence that there's accountability. I'd rather trade in a regulated space than take chances with unregulated alternatives. I think your focus should be on strong, fair rules that protect users without shutting down the whole industry.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I want to touch on a couple that resonate with me. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I believe regulation can do both by ensuring transparency and preventing manipulation while still allowing these markets to grow. And on Question 15, regarding defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to recognize that event contracts serve purposes like price discovery and hedging, distinct from gambling.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Craft rules that address specific risks while preserving the benefits they bring to people like me and to the public. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jesus Bautista
