Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Basil Anas, and I'm a finance professional from Indiana. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who values personal liberty and has used prediction markets a few times, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they provide unique benefits to individuals like me, to businesses, and to society as a whole.
In my view, liberty means having the freedom to deploy my money as I see fit, especially as an informed investor making decisions in my own best interest. The government shouldn't overstep by restricting how I can invest or take calculated risks in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't just a niche hobby. I've used them to gain insights into election outcomes and other public events, and Ive found their forecasts to be consistently more accurate than polls or pundits. That kind of information is invaluable, not just to me but to anyone trying to make sense of an uncertain world. Beyond forecasting, these markets also offer a practical way to hedge real financial risks. For instance, as someone in finance, I can see how a small business owner or even an individual could use event contracts to offset risks tied to policy changes or economic shifts. This isn't gambling. It's a tool for managing uncertainty, much like any other investment.
I also want to stress that regulated markets, like Kalshi operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than the alternative. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, people will just turn to unregulated offshore platforms with no consumer protections. I'd much rather see the CFTC focus on smart, proportionate rules that keep activity in the US, where it can be monitored and safeguarded. This ties into broader US competitiveness in financial innovation. We should be leading on this front, not ceding ground to other countries. Academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets improve price discovery and data transparency, benefiting public decision-making.
Addressing some of your specific questions, particularly in Topic Area B on Public Interest (Questions 7-14), I believe the CFTC should prioritize balancing innovation with consumer protection by regulating these markets rather than restricting them. On Topic Area C (Questions 15-22), I urge you to recognize that event contracts serve legitimate economic purposes like hedging and forecasting, and they shouldn't be lumped in with gambling. Finally, on Topic Area F (Questions 33-40), consider the costs of over-regulation, which could push small entities and individual traders like me out of the market or offshore.
I have concerns about manipulation or insider trading, sure, but those are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to tackle them. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets punishes everyone for the actions of a few bad actors. I ask that you support proportionate regulation that allows these markets to thrive while addressing specific risks with targeted rules.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Basil Anas
